We’ve barely had enough time to digest all that happened in last Saturday’s Ultimate Fighter Finale, and already another stacked card of fights is upon us.
UFC 124 will once again be in Montreal, Quebec, the home of headline fighter and welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre. The card itself is stacked with Ultimate Fighter alum. and others who simply are looking for that all-important win to make sure they earn another fight in the UFC.
Again, we are going to break down the main card and give you our predictions on how we see these fights going down.
Alves vs. Howard
The 1st fight of the night will see Thiago “the Pitbull” Alves square off against John Howard. Both fighters are coming off losses and both are at risk of losing their spot in the UFC. But don’t be confused, their situations aren’t quite the same.
Alves’ recent losses have come at the hands of 2 fighters who are top 3 in welterweight rankings, while Howard’s most recent came at the hands of a doctor stoppage. Still, with the competition getting fiercer and fiercer everyday, the importance to perform and more importantly win, is greater then ever.
There is no hiding Alves’ style – his nickname says it all. He is a pitbull, and probably the strongest fighter in the welterweight division.
His main weapon is his stand-up game. Of his 17 wins, 11 have come by way of KO or TKO. The “Pitbull” has the ability to swarm any of his opponents with a non-stop barrage of violent kicks and punches.
That being said his cardio is questionable. As fights get longer, he slows down to such an extent that he is vulnerable to attacks from the opposition.
Howard is more of a complete fighter, having strengths in all areas of mixed martial arts. Early in his career, he used a combination of wrestling and submissions to earn the majority of his wins, but in the past few years, his style has changed drastically to that of a striker, with his last 7 wins coming either by (T)KO or decision. Although Howard has beaten some tough fighters, he has yet to even face, let alone win against anyone of Alves’ calibre.
Prediction Time
This really is a tough fight to predict. Howard’s best shot at winning is to develop a plan based around a ground-game, utilizing ground-and-pound and submission attempts. If manages to do this, I feel a Howard win. But if the fight stays standing, it could very well be the fight of the night, featuring an Alves TKO.
Danzig vs. Stevenson
The second fight features 2 TUF alum. squaring off. Mac Danzig and Joe “Daddy” Stevenson are both exciting fighters who should put on a good show. Both, again, are coming off losses, but only one has a risk of being booted from the UFC.
Danzig has only won 1 of his last 5 fights, and really, it’s a surprise he is still fighting in the UFC. If he suffers a loss, he may as well consider his walking papers signed. His best chance to win this, or any fight for that matter, is his brute strength and rear naked choke. He’s got a great take down defence and a solid set of lungs which can carry him into the late rounds.
However, Danzig has not shown any promise when fighting tougher competition, dropping fights to Clay Guida, Josh Neer, and Matt Wiman.
On the other side of the cage will be the highly energetic Joe Stevenson. Joe uses high-level wrestling and a never-say-die attitude to get fights to exactly where he wants them. He can win in any area of MMA, but has a track record of winning via submission or decision.
Without question, his opponents have been tougher than Danzig’s, and he’s shown the ability to beat them. Simply put, he has the ability to crush willpower. He will unrelentingly come at his foes until he breaks them. That, or they knock him out first.
Prediction Time
Stevenson gets the nod, hands down as Mac’s areas of strength are just not good enough to fend-off Stevenson’s well rounded game. Don’t flip away, though, you can be sure that the 1st round will be full of energy and Joe Daddy’s patented smile will be stuck on that mug of his.
Miller vs. Oliveira
In such a stacked lightweight division many quality fighters are often overlooked. Enter Jim Miller and Charles Oliveira. Both have impressive records featuring wins over some very tough fighters. Joe Silva did a great job of picking this fight as a win either way will propel the winner into title contention.
Oliveira is a perfect 14-0 with 6 of the wins coming by (T)KO and 7 via submission. This record shows what a well rounded fighter he is – with all important ability to end a fight and not leave it in the judges hands. His solid Jiu Jitsu game was showcased in his win over Efrain Escudero, and he also has Rampage-like strength which he proved by knocking-out Diego Bataglia simply through slamming him against the matt.
No matter where this fight ends-up, Oliveira has the skills to keep it competitive.
Miller comes into this fight with 10 of his 18 wins being decided by submission and only 2 via (T)KO. His strength is definitely his Jiu-Jitsu, which is proven by the fact that he earned a BJJ black belt this past summer.
Miller does have stand-up but uses it more to gain positioning so that he can eventually end fights via submission, rather than using it to knock opponents out. Miller’s only loss since 2006 came at the hands of current lightweight-title challenger, Grey Maynard.
Prediction Time
I have to assume this is going to be a Jiu-Jitsu battle to the bitter end, and if that happens, we might be in for a long technical ground battle, going back and forth. Many casual fans will find this boring, but if you appreciate the technical side of MMA, you will be very entertained.
However on the slight chance that Oliveira can keep the fight standing and avoid Miller’s take downs, he’ll easily have the edge. It’s a tough one to call but I’m going to say Miller by submission late in the fight. And you can expect whoever wins to face a top-5 opponent on their next fight.
McCorkle vs. Struve
The co-main event has the smack-talking Sean McCorkle facing the human giraffe, Stefan Struve. This will be the first fight where Struve will face someone who is even close to his towering 6 foot 11 inch frame, as McCorkle comes in at 6 foot 7. I am predicting a KO in this fight, but you’ll have to read on to find out from whom.
This is only McCorkle’s second UFC fight, with his first result being an easy armbar win against an over-the-hill Mark Hunt. He is a well rounded fighter boasting both (T)KO wins and submission victories, but all of the wins have come against less-than-impressive opponents.
His biggest weapon coming into this fight might be the mental games he plays with his opposition. McCorkle is one of the most aggressive smack-talkers in MMA, and he appears to have no fear when he goes on a tirade.
Now on to Struve. Let me tell you the definition of a tough opponent for any MMA fighter: a guy who’s 6′-11″ and 250lbs, and at only 22 years of age has over 20 professional fights and no concept of when to give up.
Struve’s most impressive assets are his long limbs and his Jiu-Jitsu. 14 of his 20 wins have come by submission. Although his stand up game is still completely unrefined, the fact he has the longest reach in the UFC helps him keep punchers at bay with jabs and pot shots.
His ground work is top notch. Jiu-Jitsu aside, he posesses an underrated ground-and-pound. His technical abilities have led him to all of his victories, but it’s his heart and pure determination that have kept him from losing. It doesn’t matter how rough of shape Struve appears to be in, one can never count him out. This was only proven in his last fight against Christian Morecraft.
Prediction Time
So, who wins? Easy – Struve does. His experience, overall game, and height and reach advantage will simply be too much for McCorkle to overcome. McCorkle’s only chance will be to keep it standing and use clinch work against the cage to throw short elbows and knees and try to grind Struve down.
Unless he follows this gameplan, you can pretty much count on a Struve victory. I predict that Struve will take McCorkle down and end it with some vicious ground-and-pound. But don’t count-out a slick triangle choke.
St. Pierre vs. Koscheck
In the end, it all comes down to this. Will the king be dethroned? Will 2 months of nitpicking and insults throw GSP off his game enough for Koscheck to land that heavy left hook? Or will GSP use all of his experience to fight with a level head? On Saturday, we’ll finally learn the answer. For now lets look at the skills these fighters have that might lead each to the massive win.
Josh Koschek plays up the bad boy image like no other. He insults every fighter he faces and gets under each and everyone’s skin. That coupled with a very well-rounded MMA game has won him many fights.
Josh is a wrestler at heart but he has evolved into a overall menace in the cage. He can knock you out on your feet, or pound you on the matt. And if that doesn’t work he has the ability to submit you and the cardio to go a full 5 rounds. In short, he is a very well-rounded fighter.
His one weak spot is his emotions, which he wears on his sleeve. There’s no room in MMA to let emotions get the best of you – rage blurs reality and the next thing you know your face down on the canvas.
It feels silly to “breakdown” George St. Pierre’s game. He is good, period. He’s the best in the world, hands down. He can punch, kick, submit, and, for a guy who has never wrestled before entering the MMA game, he has some of the best wrestling in the UFC. He is a consummate professional who takes everything seriously and trains harder then anyone.
St. Pierre’s gameplan is not a secret, he has used and won his last 4-5 fights using a carbon copy of it. He is a grinder, he has impeccable take downs, and when his opponent is on his back, there might be 1 or 2 times in 5 rounds when he leaves more then an inch of space.
All this aside, he can still throw some heavy hands and he has been working with the best boxing coach on the planet. GSP is the reason this entire form of fighting is known as “Mixed Martial Arts.”
Prediction Time
This should be a great fight. If Koscheck can escape GSP’s takedowns he has as good a chance as anyone to knock GSP out.
St. Pierre’s chin has been a question mark ever since he was knocked out by Matt Serra, and no one knows it better then GSP himself. Because of this, he developed what some call a “lay-and-pray” style which results in a very boring fight, despite always resulting in wins. Because of this, he is the undisputed welterweight champion of the world.
If GSP has his way, this fight will unfold in a similar manner, and being realistic, he should have his way. Again, I am not counting Koschek out, he has a punchers chance of winning. But I think this will be a 5-round unanimous decision with the end of the fight sounding like this:
“For the winner, by unanimous decision..….and still welter weight champion of the world, George St. Pierre”
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